![]() “That would keep yearly productivity growth negative, and a long way from the pre-pandemic trend. “A (very) small increase in productivity would seem possible in the March quarter but, given the strength in hours worked in April, it is difficult not to foresee a fall in productivity in June,” they said. Those figures showed that unemployment is starting to rise, though still historically low, while wages growth has picked up to a decade high.Īnd because the RBA said at its May meeting that higher wages growth could become overly inflationary without a subsequent rise in productivity, ANZ economists state that rates will need to rise higher to compensate. Treasury Bills are quoted in yield terms. “We judge this to be at the very limit of the ‘reasonable timeframe the board will tolerate for a return to a target, likely necessitating at least one more rise.”ĪNZ Bank economists are also predicting rates will peak at 4.1 per cent by the middle of 2023, saying the “devil is in the detail” when it comes to the recent spate of economic data. High / Low Levels Data reflects the highest/lowest transacted price in the inter-dealer market for bonds. “The RBA continues to see inflation moderating but remaining above target band until 2025,” they said. The interest rate earned on a T-bill is not. There’s even a “strong risk” the RBA will take rates to 4.35 per cent by August, NAB economists stated. The schedule of Treasury securities auctions is released at the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding press conference, usually held on the first Wednesday of February, May, August, and November. After the investor receives the 1,000 at the end of the 52 weeks, the interest rate earned is 2.56, or 25 / 975 0.0256. The economists at National Australia Bank (NAB) agree, predicting at least two further rate hikes that will take the cash rate target from 3.85 per cent to 4.1 per cent. Daily Contract Settlement Value: Rs 2000 daily settlement price: Final Contract Settlement Value: Rs 2000 (100 - 0. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans also predicted a pause in June, though he says the move is “finely balanced” amid risks that higher services inflation could derail RBA plans. “But another rate increase would require the economic data, particularly around inflation, GDP, the unemployment rate and wages/unit labour costs, to come in stronger than the RBA’s updated forecasts.” “The board is willing to raise the cash rate again,” he said. Mr Aird said figures published since the RBA published its last set of forecasts in May show key metrics on unemployment and wages are performing “slightly weaker” than they had expected.Īnd because the board had said that more hikes may be required, based on the strength of the economy, that suggests interest rates will stay where they are for the time being, he said. “The economic data released since the May board meeting does not support another rate hike in June.” Key metrics ‘weaker’ The Treasury Department scheduled a T-bill auction for June 5, but it would be postponed if the US fails to resolve the debt ceiling crisis by then. ![]() “The RBA June board meeting is not currently live,” he said on Friday. The bank’s chief economist Gareth Aird said on Friday the chance of a hike is only 10 per cent.
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